# US vs Emerging Markets: SPY/EEM Ratio (2003-2026)

**Data source**: Yahoo Finance daily adjusted close prices via `yfinance`. Tickers: SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF). Prices are split- and dividend-adjusted.

## Summary

The SPY/EEM ratio measures how many shares of EEM one share of SPY can buy. A rising ratio means US is outperforming emerging markets; a falling ratio means EM is outperforming.

**Three distinct eras:**

1. **2003-2010: EM Dominance** — Ratio fell from 6.3 to 2.8. The BRIC boom drove massive EM outperformance. China's WTO entry, commodity supercycle, and rapid industrialization powered EM equities.

2. **2011-2024: US Dominance** — Ratio rose from 2.8 to 14.2 (peak). US tech-led growth, QE tailwinds, strong dollar, and FAANG/Magnificent 7 drove relentless US outperformance. EM struggled with China slowdown, commodity bust, and USD strength.

3. **2025-present: EM Recovery?** — Ratio pulled back from 14.2 to 11.2. Early signs of EM catching up, possibly driven by China stimulus, AI supply chain diversification, and US valuation stretch.

## Year-End SPY/EEM Ratio

| Year | Ratio | YoY Change |
|------|------:|----------:|
| 2003 | 6.27 | — |
| 2004 | 5.57 | -11.2% |
| 2005 | 4.40 | -21.0% |
| 2006 | 3.89 | -11.6% |
| 2007 | 3.07 | -21.1% |
| 2008 | 3.79 | +23.5% |
| 2009 | 2.84 | -25.1% |
| 2010 | 2.80 | -1.4% |
| 2011 | 3.51 | +25.4% |
| 2012 | 3.42 | -2.6% |
| 2013 | 4.70 | +37.4% |
| 2014 | 5.55 | +18.1% |
| 2015 | 6.70 | +20.7% |
| 2016 | 6.77 | +1.0% |
| 2017 | 6.00 | -11.4% |
| 2018 | 6.76 | +12.7% |
| 2019 | 7.51 | +11.1% |
| 2020 | 7.59 | +1.1% |
| 2021 | 10.14 | +33.6% |
| 2022 | 10.44 | +3.0% |
| 2023 | 12.10 | +15.9% |
| 2024 | 14.19 | +17.3% |
| 2025 | 12.46 | -12.2% |
| 2026* | 11.24 | -9.8% |

*2026 is as of Feb 11, 2026.

## Key Takeaways

- The ratio's all-time low was ~2.8 in 2010 (peak EM); all-time high was ~14.4 in late 2024 (peak US).
- US outperformed EM by roughly 5x from trough to peak (2010-2024).
- The recent pullback from 14.2 to 11.2 (~21%) is the sharpest EM-favorable move since 2009.
- At 11.2, the ratio is back to mid-2023 levels.

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*Generated on Feb 12, 2026. Data from Yahoo Finance.*